Some US households could spend more on heating this winter

Heating costs across the nation will split this winter, according to a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Some homes face price increases topping 20 percent, but other households will pay lower bills. Energy prices and local weather forecasts will direct those final heating costs.

The federal outlook examined the four most common heating fuels. It also tracked anticipated average temperatures across the country.

Homes relying on natural gas or propane will have lower energy expenditures this winter, the agency projected. Lower fuel costs drive that decrease.

Natural gas users could spend about 9 percent less between November and March. That dip marks the largest drop across any fuel type. Propane users could see a 3 percent decline.

Electricity customers could see costs rise by about 4 percent this winter. Heating oil users face larger jumps. Heating oil fuels about 3 percent of U.S. homes. The agency projects heating oil prices will jump by about 21 percent over last year.

Regional temperatures could change those projected average fuel costs. The South, Midwest and Northeast may see similar or warmer temperatures. The West could face colder weather this year.

Homes in the West could see natural gas costs jump 7 percent. Electricity bills in the West may increase 9 percent. Projected fuel changes across regions include:

• West: natural gas up 7 percent, electricity up 9 percent
• South: natural gas down 15 percent, electricity up 3 percent, propane flat
• Midwest: natural gas down 10 percent, electricity up 3 percent, propane down 4 percent
• Northeast: natural gas down 14 percent, electricity down 3 percent, propane down 15 percent

This year features an El Niño weather pattern. The agency stated the pattern could lead to large temperature variations from its forecast. El Niño usually gains peak strength during the winter months.

Forecasters said last month there is a 75 percent chance of a historic event. It could exceed the strength of previous events dating back to 1950. The weather pattern usually brings drier conditions to northern areas and the Ohio Valley. Wet weather often shifts across southern states.

High-tide flooding may also rise during El Niño years, according to the National Weather Service. That flooding risk increases on the West Coast.

Columbia University climate scientist Azhar Ehsan said during a September briefing that current patterns mirror 1997. One of the strongest El Niño events on record formed that year.

The 1997 storm pattern brought severe ice storms to the Northeast. California and the Southeast experienced heavy flooding rains. Tornadoes struck Florida.

National heating costs dropped 10 percent during the 1997 pattern. A separate report from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association noted current burdens. That group projected average households will spend more than $1,000 to heat homes this winter.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration collects and publishes independent energy statistics. The federal agency operates within the Department of Energy to inform public policy and markets.

Winter energy rates vary across states and utility providers. Residents can check local utility rates to prepare for winter billing cycles.